DD Refresh
Saturday 01 August, 18:36

Fortnightly maintenance run. No ratings changed, no health scores recalculated, no WATCHLIST or open-ideas edits. Refresh sections appended to eight files.

Selection

Eight oldest in-scope due-diligence files, all stale by more than 30 days, in order of staleness.

Ticker Prior file date Scope reason
HUBS 2026-05-15 WATCHLIST Active Swing
VRT 2026-05-30 WATCHLIST AI Infra Dip Radar
PFE 2026-06-01 WATCHLIST Active Swing
MARA 2026-06-02 Live idea, sub-$10 re-entry trigger
NOK 2026-06-15 WATCHLIST Active Swing
SMCI 2026-06-15 WATCHLIST AI Infra Dip Radar
PSTG (NYSE: P) 2026-06-15 WATCHLIST plus live $76 reclaim idea
BEAM 2026-06-23 WATCHLIST Active Swing

Skipped for the eight-name cap: nothing. FIX (2026-07-24) and the nine files refreshed 2026-07-31 (AMZN, IREN, META, NFLX, NLR, SYM, TTWO, V, VST) are all inside 30 days and did not qualify.

Out of scope and deliberately not refreshed, because they are not held, not on the watchlist and not attached to a live idea: AA, AAOI, ACHR, ALB, CIEN, CLSK, DIS, FCX, HSY, KHC, LLY, OPEN, RIOT, SOFI, VYX, WULF, ZETA.

What changed

HUBS. Q1 beat and FY26 guidance went up, but the Street cut targets hard and Citi downgraded to Neutral at $230. Q2 reports 2026-08-05. Third-party NRR reading softened to ~102%.

VRT. Q2 beat and FY26 guidance raised across every metric, yet the stock is ~40% below its 52-week high at $227.51. Insider selling ran 10 sellers to 0 buyers over 12 months.

PFE. Guidance reaffirmed, nothing broken. CFO Denton leaves 2026-08-15. Q2 now confirmed for 2026-08-04. Price $25.01, the sub-$23 wheel trigger has not fired.

MARA. Q1 loss of about $1.26B on $174.6M revenue, 15% headcount cut, Morgan Stanley to $7 Underweight. Price ~$11.85, so the sub-$10 re-entry trigger has not fired.

NOK. AI and Cloud sales doubled to EUR 446M and optical grew 20%, and the stock still fell to $9.14, down 47.6% from its high and sitting on its 200 DMA. No corporate action explains it.

SMCI. Q4 gross margin guided to 15-17% from 8.2-8.4%, plus $60B of new orders and a record backlog, though revenue lands at the low end of the range. DOJ case still does not name the company.

PSTG. The May 27 print cut FY27 guidance and dropped the stock 13.8%, on NAND-driven gross margin pressure. The file never captured it.

BEAM. Lost a Prime Medicine arbitration over AATD rights, the indication of its lead program, then fell 8 straight sessions for 27.4%. Price $24.85.

Needs a live session

Five names. Each has a stale claim contradicted or a new risk that the file does not carry.

BEAM is the sharpest. A new risk category fires that the file has no coverage of at all, IP and litigation exposure on the lead program's own indication. Break condition (a) has fired, and the entire buy-the-pullback plan, entry $32-34 and stop under $29.50, sits above the current price. The file is unusable as written.

NOK. Break condition (b) did not fire and break condition (c) did, at the same time. Fundamentals accelerated while the stock halved to the 200 DMA. Every price, fib level, entry and stop in the file is void, and the file's core call that the reward was gone at the mean target has inverted to a 39% discount to it.

SMCI. The margin compression red flag, one of only two hard triggers in the file, no longer describes the forward guide. The value-trap case was built on the ~8.4% gross margin trough and guidance is now roughly double that. Health score needs rescoring, which this run does not do.

PSTG. Break condition (b), gross margin breaking on flash-cost pressure, went from hypothetical to live. The ~$90-94 consensus target in the file predates both the guidance cut and JPMorgan's cut to $80.

VRT. No new fundamental red flag, but the file's own revisit condition of a meaningful pullback has largely happened, and the regime paragraph describes a market that no longer exists. Insider selling intensified rather than resolved.

HUBS, PFE and MARA do not need a session. Stale prices and target bands, no fired triggers, and both the PFE and MARA entry triggers remain untouched. PFE reports 2026-08-04 and HUBS on 2026-08-05, so both will need a look then regardless.